Generation of the last forecasts: 20 September 2019 06:00:22 (UTC)


Overview and discussion

This model provides a global prediction of the flow of vehicles on the main roads over United Kingdom. Based on actual counts and in combination with atmospheric data, it produces hourly forecasts of the number of cars for a 7-days period (weekends are not covered).

The results are displayed with all the powerfull functionnalities of Google Maps. At this stage of development, the scale is quite approximative: from green for low traffic to red for high flows. In some places, the absence of traffic (no colors) is simply due to the non-availability of historical counts. Due to the structure of the original dataset, the prediction of traffic flows is only available from 7am to 6pm (UK time) and from monday to friday. It is also important to keep in mind that the outputs reflect the flows of vehicles per hour and not the traffic congestion. Additional data and further analysis will be used in the future to try to clarify some of these aspects, reduce some of these limitations and improve the accuracy.

We are already convinced that this kind of models will play a major role in the optimization of the global traffic of autonomous vehicles.

how to use it?

The map is initially displayed with the current prediction (or the next available) of road traffic and is automatically refreshed every hour. Use the timeline bar (below the map) or the time control panel (on the map) to get a forecast at any other available time.

You can also change the region by moving on the map, change the scale or the background settings.

Real-time traffic conditions generated by Google Traffic are displayed only for predictions of the current time.


How does it work?

This project uses the "Raw count data - major roads" dataset (see below for details). These traffic counts are combined with calendar and weather data from various models. Data science and machine learning techniques are then used to build predictive models and forecasts for future traffic flows. This approach is transposable to the prediction of any weather-dependant variable.

About the traffic data source

All the traffic data are provided by the UK Department for Transport under Open Government Licence. They are available for download from 2000 to 2016 for minor or major roads. You will find all the details and datasets on the "GB Road Traffic Counts" webpage.

Terms of use

All the data generated by this experimental model are freely available without warranty of any kind.