Generation of the last forecasts: 05 December 2022 07:14:48 (UTC)


Overview and discussion

When it is present close to the ground (more precisely in the troposphere) ozone (O3) is a harmful substance with some health risks for the population and also some negative environmental impacts. Ozone is the result of the photochemical reactions (sunlight) between nitrogen oxides (NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are emitted by fossil fuel combustion (cars, industries...).

This model provides a global prediction of the ozone concentration over United Kingdom. Based on actual records provided by the network of stations managed by the UK Environment Agency and in combination with atmospheric data, it produces forecasts of the ozone concentration with a 3-hours step and for a 7-days period.

The colors indicate the level of atmospheric pollution: from blue for low concentration to red for high concentration of pollutants.

how to use it?

The map is initially displayed with the current prediction (or the next available) of ozone concentration and is automatically refreshed every hour. Use the timeline bar (below the map) or the time control panel (on the map) to get a forecast at any other available time.

You can also change the region by moving on the map, change the scale or the background settings.

Both the minimum and maximum values of the predictions over UK are initially displayed on the map. You can display the forecast at any other place by directly clicking on the map. Use the button "Remove all markers" to delete all the displayed values.


Ozone vs nitrogen dioxide concentration

It is interesting to compare the forecasts of this model with the predictions of the nitrogen dioxide concentration.

Indeed, ozone reacts chemically with nitrogen monoxide (emitted in particular by automobile traffic) to give nitrogen dioxide and oxygen: O3 + NO -> NO2 + O2. Consequently, in agglomerations and industrial areas, the concentration of ozone tends to decrease when the concentration of nitrogen dioxide increases. On the contrary, the concentration of ozone is often higher in the countryside and in peri-urban areas!

How does it work?

This project uses the records generated by the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) that monitors the UK air quality and pollution. This network automatically produces hourly mesurements of the main pollutants (please refer to the links below for more details). This measurements are combined with calendar and weather data from various models. Data science and machine learning techniques are then used to build predictive models and forecasts for future ozone concentration. This approach is transposable to the prediction of any weather-dependant variable.

About the data source

All the pollution data are provided by the UK Defra and the Devolved Administrations under the Open Government Licence (OGL).

Terms of use

All the data generated by this experimental model are freely available without warranty of any kind.